Saturday, September 24, 2005

The wisdom of crowds

There is an interesting piece on the Google Blog right now. They describe how the aggregated bets of hundreds of employees on future events turn out to be remarkably accurate.

The phenonemon they utilise is the one that means "Ask The Audience" inevitably gives a more accurate answer than the other "Millionaire" lifelines.

The Wisdom of Crowds is different to Herd Behaviour. My success of my nascent investment strategy is predicated on pretty much everybody else in the world being wrong so this is fortunate.

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